El PIB real gana tracción en el tercer trimestre de 2015 Lorena Dominguez, Economista Senior de HSBC México

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- La lectura final de las cifras del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) real del tercer trimestre de 2015 registró mejores resultados a lo mostrado en la primera estimación realizada por el INEGI, lo que reflejó que la actividad económica continuó ganando tracción.

- La principal alza se registró en servicios, los cuales crecieron 0.8% trimestre contra trimestre, frente al 0.5% registrado en la primera estimación, lo que demuestra que este sector mantuvo un sólido crecimiento entre julio y septiembre de este año.

- La producción industrial también subió 0.8% con cifras ajustadas por estacionalidad desde 0.7% obtenido en la primera estimación, confirmando que ganó impulso en el tercer trimestre de 2015.

- HSBC estima que el PIB crecerá 2.3% en 2015.

Mexico

Real GDP: Gaining traction in 3Q15

The final reading of 3Q15 real GDP figures posted better results than the first estimate, reflecting that economic activity continued to gain traction. The main upward revision was in services, which grew 0.8% q-o-q vs. 0.5% q-o-q in the first estimate, showing that this sector maintained a sound growth in the 3Q15. Industrial production was also revised up to 0.8% vs 0.7% in the first estimate, confirming that it gained traction in the 3Q15. Finally, it is worth noting that the agricultural sector grew notably this quarter. HSBC estimates that GDP will expand 2.3% in 2015.

Facts

Real GDP increased 0.8% q-o-q in seasonally adjusted terms in the 3Q15, coming above the first estimate of 0.6% released by INEGI 20 days ago. This quarter's improvement was broad-based. Both the industrial and services sectors grew 0.8% q-o-q, while the agricultural sector did it by 2.8% q-o-q.

On an annual basis, real GDP grew 2.6% in the 3Q15, above the 2.3% growth in the first estimate. The services sector increased 3.3% y-o-y, while the industrial and agricultural sectors did it by 1.2% and 4.1% y-o-y, respectively.

INEGI also released the monthly economic activity index, IGAE, for September. Despite that IGAE is a monthly index with less coverage than the quarterly GDP numbers, it helps to monitor the latest trend in the economy. In seasonally adjusted basis, IGAE increased 0.2% in September due to increases in industrial activities and services of 0.4% and 0.2% m-o-m, respectively; in contrast, agricultural sector dropped 0.1% q-o-q. On annual basis, IGAE increased 3.1%.

Implications

3Q15 real GDP figures came better than the first estimate released by INEGI. The main revision was in the services sector, which grew 0.8% q-o-q vs. 0.5% q-o-q in the first estimate. This confirms that the services sector maintained a solid growth in the 3Q15. In particular, services related to commerce, mass media information, business and tourism posted the most accelerated expansion rates.

Industrial activity was also revised upwards to 0.8% q-o-q from 0.7% in the first estimate. This confirms that this sector, which has been sluggish this year, gained momentum in the 3Q15. Finally, it is worth noting that during this quarter, the agricultural sector played an important role, as this sector grew sharply.

HSBC expects GDP to expand 2.3% in 2015, led by the services sector. In contrast, we expect the industrial sector to continue to struggle to grow due to lower external demand and local factors.

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